Arguing with Myself

Sunday afternoon, I am sitting in the office. While my co-workers discuss some… work…stuff (I wasn’t really paying attention – good use of that plane ticket getting me to Seattle early), I sat at my computer nodding knowingly and adding a well-placed ‘that’s a good idea’ while I slowly died a little inside.

While I thoroughly enjoy fantasy sports and it has greatly expanded my knowledge and interest in pro sports (for example – did you know Fukudome is not what the woman wandering around downtown Saigon says to the soldiers having a beer in Full Metal Jacket? This is what I learned playing fantasy baseball), I have realized that it can lead to serious conflicts of interest.

On Sunday, as we did…some…really…important stuff at the office, I streamed NFL.com to keep track of the Broncos game. I also checked on my fantasy match-up, and learned that my opponent for the week had both Brandon Marshall and Michael Pittman. Suddenly, I was torn. As mentioned here before: as goes Brandon Marshall, so goes the Broncos. So while the Broncos needed a comeback I had to hope at the same time that the Broncos could do it without Marshall and Pittman in the running game. To twist the knife fully, the Broncos lost AND Marshall and Pittman scored 34 points. An all around bad afternoon for me. Oh yeah, and did I mention I was at work too? Yeah, Sunday sucked.

Monday night (still at work – exciting life I lead), I came into the Monday Night Football game down by 45 points but with Brandon Jacobs, Braylon Edwards and the Giants defense representin’. As people continued to talk and talk and talk (as if I didn’t have more important things going on), I was torn once again. Every yard by the Browns offense meant another opportunity for Braylon to catch a pass but at the same time reduced the points for my defense. Each catch was literally two steps forward, one step back. Every yard that wasn’t to Edwards was pure misery.

At the end of the night, I was afraid to check the score of my fantasy match-up. I ended up losing by 3 points (which came from 5 too many yards given up by my defense).

Remember last week when I said I would pay for going 3-for-3 (college, NFL, fantasy)? It took God all of one week before I was made to pay.

All of the stomach churn and stress got me to thinking about the trade-offs that fans make in playing fantasy as well. What do you cheer for? Your favorite team or your fantasy team?

Any logical fan would pick reality over fantasy but is it really that simple? The Broncos were 4-1 coming into this weekend with a two game lead in their conference. My fantasy team was 1-4 and in dead last. Which team needed to win more?

I spend lots (and lots and lots) of time complaining about how Mike Shanahan runs the Broncos, and he hasn’t taken any of my suggestions; yet I am running my fantasy team so every fantasy team loss makes me more and more like Al Davis (less the freaky, Crypt Keeper-esque look of course). As a male with a healthy ego (see: pretty much every previous post), every failure is like a pin prick to the heart. Sooner or later, the fatal blow will be struck and I will turn into Mort Goldman.

So, what’s the answer? I don’t have one I am afraid. You can bench your own players when they play your favorite team (unless of course you have a receiver or running back playing against the Broncos, that is just giving away free points right there) so you don’t actively hope that someone lights up your defense but you can’t do much about your opponents owning some of your players.

I guess as long as I play fantasy, I will be tormented at least a few times per year.

Although as bad as my fantasy team is, maybe next year I should just draft all Broncos. Double-down my bets.

Of course, wasn’t that part of what brought down our economy?

Sitting in the War Room

You know when team officials lock themselves in a room for the NFL draft each spring, they call it the war room. I guess in the –way-too-serious world of the NFL, it does start to feel like the command post of a war happening outside its walls. Especially about hour number six after Wade Philips had a burrito for lunch.

So as I sit in seat 11-C on my way to Orlando for my fantasy football draft, I guess I will think of this Airbus 319 as a flying command post. Air Dave One, it is.

I have spent most of the flight, looking through all of the conflicting player rankings coming up with a strategy for the draft. I know my draft position (7^th – though sadly I can not remember whether this is a ten or twelve person league, which has serious repercussions beginning in round two) so I have been trying to target a short list of players for each round. Thankfully, the movie is that crappy rip-off of My Best Friend’s Wedding starring McDreamy. Apparently now that he is a sex symbol everyone has forgotten that he played high school dorks in classics of my youth Can’t Buy Me Love and Mr. Loverboy. I haven’t. But I guess he gives hope to everyone that wasn’t exactly Homecoming King, so he has that going for him.

Anyway, Ronald Miller isn’t much of a distraction, so I was able to focus on coming up with a plan. Here are some random thoughts and predictions on players I like and hopefully at least some of them become members of the team this year.

Running Backs

• At pick seven in round one it appears to come down to Clinton Portis or Steven Jackson. We are in a point-per-reception league so a reception is more valuable than a run (a 10-yard run would be 1 point, a 10-yard reception would be 2 points, 1 for the yardage, 1 for the catch). This means I want a running back who catches passes. I had S-Jax two years ago in a PPR league and he was great. But considering his holdout and his injury decimated team from last year, is Portis and his 43 personalities a safer pick?
• Other running backs:
  • I am still a believer in Reggie Bush (because of PPR), I can tell he is going to be an annual infatuation that never turns out well. Kind of like Alyssa Milano and whatever baseball player she met last week.
  • I am starting to be brainwashed into Chris Perry in Cincinnati, though I pretty much loathe all multiple-back situations, which eliminates at least half of the league.
  • I, along with the rest of the world, think Darren McFadden could have a huge year as could his former Razorback, Felix Jones. Call it a hunch but the Boys are going to get him the ball. Leaving the real question, why again were the Razorbacks so bad last year?

Quarterback

• Tom Brady is also slotted in the area of the 7^th pick so he is a possibility. Even though he was the MVP of my team last year, I just have a gut feeling that he is not going to put up those same numbers. Even before the Giants defense clamped down on the Patriots record setting offense, Tom’s numbers started to get a little less predictable. His five worst performances (measured by quarterback rating) occurred in weeks 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, you know right in the fantasy playoffs. Thanks again, Tom. Is that what we can expect this year or the record setting thrower from earlier in the season? I don’t know and I don’t want to waste my first round pick a second year in a row (don’t think I have forgotten Marvin Harrison).
• Other quarterbacks:
  • I don’t really trust either Tony Romo (as has been made abundantly clear) or Peyton Manning (surprisingly underwhelming year last year, coming off injury and missing training camp – ick) but we also get .25 points per completed pass so I feel like maybe I should reach for one of these in round two.
  • I am debating grabbing two low end quarterbacks and alternating based on the match-up of the week rather than rolling the dice on one of the many mid-tier quarterbacks. If I end up going with this strategy my two favorites might be Jay Cutler and Vince Young.
  • As I have said, Jay could have a big year, but I have always been told not to mix business and pleasure. While Vince is ranked very low (about #23 among quarterbacks by ESPN), I like that he can get yards running in addition to passing. His 395 yards running last season would be the equivalent of another 1,000 yards passing in fantasy points. I still wish he had more receivers, but you can’t have everything.

Wide Receivers

• In the second round, assuming I do take a running back in round one, I need a wide receiver. I really like Braylon Edwards this year. Ok, that’s a lie, I have liked every year since I argued that the 49ers should take him #1 over Alex Smith. A wide receiver #1 overall, that’s blasphemous? Yeah, who’s laughing now? Wouldn’t the Niners look pretty good with Matt Leinart or Jay Cutler throwing to Edwards and handing off to Frank Gore?
• Other wide receivers:
  • We all may be sick of Brett Favre but Jericho Cotchery isn’t. At least not until the next offseason.
  • Wes Welker, catching all of those passes over the middle after teams gear up to stop Randy Moss. Point-per-reception league. That sounds like a nice combination.
  • Santonio Holmes continues his ascension to becoming one of the top ten receivers in the game. You heard hear first. Ok, maybe not first, but I have to be in the top ten, right?

Tight End

• I am a firm believer that there is no reason to reach for one of the big names in the 5^th round, unless there are no receivers/running backs you think will score more points available.
• If Jeremy Shockey can find his way to the Super Dome from Bourbon Street, I think he could have a nice year. Check out the Saints that caught touchdown passes last year, you don’t think they could just consolidate 50% of those to Shockey? They had a guy named Pierre catch one!
• Heath Miller done me right last year, so I would be happy to stick with him this year. His name is a combination of the key ingredient for the best Blizzard and my domestic light beer of choice. If that isn’t enough for you, I don’t know what is.
• Chris Cooley is sneaky. Somehow without any fanfare outside the beltway he has become one of the best tight ends in the game and despite looking like this, he married a Redskin cheerleader. Sneaky I tell you.

Defense

• I know everyone says that all defenses are pretty close to the same, but there was at least one week last year that the Vikings defense (with a little help from Eli Manning) single-handedly won for me.
• The Vikings big move was going out and getting Jared Allen one of the leading sackers in the league. If only I played in a keeper league.

Kickers

o       I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. Kickers don’t matter. Why are you still reading?

The Boys Are Back in Town

Before diving into the Cowboys/Broncos game from this past weekend, I have 3 comments on the Olympics I need to get off my chest:

• First a shout out of congratulations to Walter Dix. As someone who also spent many, many hours almost killing myself on the Mike Long track, I take immense pride in a fellow Nole coming up so huge on the largest stage in the world. Congrats Walter, good luck in the 200. Even Alachua county is rooting for you this time.
• Second, I am happy to report that despite hours of brainwashing by Al Trautwig and Tim Daggett I feel even stronger than ever that all judged events have no place in the Olympics. The ridiculousness that is endured on a nightly basis where no one can understand or explain why one competitor wins over another is absolutely ludicrous. Add in that whole tie-break fiasco and I most certainly won’t be counting the days until the next gymnastics meet. Since when would it be so bad that two competitors who performed equally well both get gold?
  • Can you imagine if this was applied to other sports? Like track? “Well, it looks like the two Jamaicans have tied for second in the women’s 100 here at the Bird’s Nest. And the judges have awarded the silver to Kerron Stewart for having a quicker start out of the blocks and maintaining better form over the first 50 meters.”
• Finally, did you see that coach for U.S. Pole Vaulter Jenn Stuczynski, after she won the silver? I won’t recap it here (this does a great job of summarizing both the incident and my reaction to it). Two points though:
  • Think what you will about gymnastics or diving (as I clearly do), you have to give the coaches a ton of credit. No matter how bad of a belly flop or face plant is performed by one of the athletes; the coaches are always there with a hug, high-five and words of encouragement. There is no underestimating how important that is to these athletes.
  • Jenn, since clearly your coach won’t say it, let me just say: congratulations. Fantastic job. There is no shame in losing to the greatest athlete of all time in your event (who set a world record during the event). You did a great job. When you come to your senses and ditch whats-his-name, try giving Dennis Nobles a call. As for coach, well let me just say I hope he finds some enjoyment from his time in Beijing. After that performance I can’t imagine a lot of world class athletes will be beating down his door.

Whew I feel better. Ok, on to the game.

With less than a week until my fantasy draft I find myself having a hard time watching football games without constantly looking at it from the fantasy perspective. With that in mind, I decided to review the game from the fantasy point of view.

Quarterback

Broncos – In case you haven’t noticed (and you probably haven’t), Jay Cutler is having a great pre-season. He started off against the Cowboys with 12 straight completions and finished 16 of 20 for 178 yards and a touchdown. Yes, this was against everyone’s Super Bowl favorite Cowboys defense. He picked them apart. While he may not be in the top tier of quarterbacks, with the Broncos weak schedule, he has to be a strong consideration for a spot start in case of injury or bye week. Especially after the first two weeks when he gets Brandon Marshall back.

Cowboys – I’m not sure if Tony confused ‘pre-season’ with ‘post-season’ but Romo didn’t look real sharp. While there was absolutely no pressure from the Bronco defense (shocking, I know), Tony still didn’t do much. He ended the day 6 of 9 for 33 yards. Part of this was the clock eating drives of the Broncos early in the game but clearly he had no luck going downfield in his couple drives (long of 10 yards). I know he is a top four fantasy quarterback, but I think fantasy owners are going to need to be willing to suck up a few dreadful weeks to get those outstanding weeks.

Running Back

Broncos – You got me. Seriously, I got nothing. I can’t even tell you who to talk about, let alone how they are going to do. Andre Hall and Selvin Young are both getting equal time with the first team and both look equally good. Based on his stats last year you would lean toward Young, but given his history of injuries and Mike Shanahan’s love of screwing fantasy running back owners, I don’t think either of these guys have upside worthy of wasting a high draft pick oh him. If someone gambles on Young way-too-early in the draft I might pick up Hall late (do you really need that second defense?) and stash him on the bench to see how many carries he gets those first few weeks. Don’t forget everyone’s summer crush Ryan Torain will be back just in time to ruin someone’s fantasy playoff performance and there is also Anthony Alridge who should get some of those valuable swing passes and sweeps each game.

Cowboys – Marion Barber is a consensus late first round pick. Call me as conservative as Bill O’Reilly but I tend to want my first round picks to be the clear number one on their teams. The more I have seen both Hard Knocks and the Cowboys play the more and more convinced I am that Felix Jones is going to be the scourge of all Barber owners. Jones is going to get carries and passes this season. Remember Duce Staley? Brian Westbrook’s rookie year, Duce had over 1500 yards from scrimmage. The following year he had 845. You think Jerry Jones will keep his fellow Arkansas alum off the field as much as Westbrook that rookie year? Sure Marion will get the majority of the goal line carries which helps his value but don’t say I didn’t warn you when he is right back sharing time with Felix Jones.

Wide Receiver

Broncos – In case you didn’t get the subtle hints from my training camp time, Brandon Marshall is going to see a lot of balls coming his way this year (Cowboy game: 6 catches, 59 yards and 1 touchdown in less than two quarters). If the Broncos can find another threat during Marshall’s suspension that will keep teams from focusing on him, Marshall should have a big year. On the other side, Eddie Royal has been one of the breakout stars of Bronco camp and the Cowboy game (2 receptions for 67 yards) and has the inside track to playing opposite Marshall all year. He better play well, as for the rest of his career I will be comparing Eddie to DeSean Jackson – a similar player with better collegiate career who the Broncos passed on for Eddie. DeSean had 6 catches for 70 yards in Philly’s game against the Panthers on Friday. Just sayin.

Cowboys – T.O. is….T.O. He had a relatively quiet night against the Broncos (3 catches, 20 yards) but by this point we know what we are getting from T.O. As long as Romo has as much time as he did against the Broncos, Owens will have a big year. It would be helpful if the Cowboys could find a partner for him to take some of the attention but I don’t think Patrick Crayton (big, fat goose-egg on the catches) is striking fear in the hearts of too many defensive coordinators. Miles Austin had the biggest play – a 37 yard touchdown pass from Brad Johnson but then got injured and can’t really be considered a fantasy option until he takes Crayton’s job.

Tight End

Broncos – To me this is the most interesting position for the Broncos. The fantasy experts love Tony Scheffler and I’m not sure why. Yes, he has finished the last two seasons on fire but throughout camp and the two pre-season games he seems to be the Broncos third tight end. First is Daniel Graham, primarily for his blocking ability, though he still had 24 catches last year. Second has been Nate Jackson, who actually has more rececptions than Scheffler so far this year. In fact, Scheffler didn’t really start getting lots of balls until Jackson hit the IR last year. If Jackson is a better blocker than Scheffler than won’t he get the majority of snaps when the Broncos are keeping run and pass options open (like, for example – inside the 5 yard line)? If Scheffler screams “PASSS” to the other defense, doesn’t that limit his effectiveness and fantasy value? I am no fantasy expert, what do I know. I just think when I am looking for a tight end I would rather have a clear number one like Heath Miller or Alge Crumpler, who are rated below Scheffler.

Cowboys – Speaking of clear number ones, the Cowboys have Jason Witten. While he didn’t do much against the Broncos (zero catches), Romo’s vacation buddy is clearly one of the top five tight ends in the game (is it getting monotonous saying that every Cowboy offensive player didn’t do much? Sorry, you should have seen the game – yawn). Interestingly, the break out player of the game for the Cowboys was Rodney Hannah who had 4 catches for 52 yards. I have no idea how the Cowboys would fit him in, but he looked darn good – big and quick.

Defense

Broncos – If you are seriously considering drafting the Broncos defense after their performance last season, you need more help than I could ever provide. Despite, the Cowboys struggles, you need to remember that the Broncos defensive line is young, suspect and ineffective; their linebackers are unproven and the secondary is a combination of new or unhealthy. Other than that they are really solid.

Cowboys – Much like everyone else on ‘America’s Team’ the Cowboys defense is heavily hyped. Not that allowing the Broncos to march up and down the field, putting no pressure on the quarterback and giving up fourteen points in a quarter will change the hype. But I would think at a minimum it has to give someone drafting the Cowboys defense a moment’s pause.

Kickers

Does it really matter? All kickers are pretty much the same. Argue with me only if you spent a draft pick on Mason Crosby a year ago knowing that he would be the highest scoring kicker in the league.

Having said that, Matt ‘Brian Griese’ Prater hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency so far this season.

Actually, strike that, he has missed the first field goal of both games so far, he has been very consistent.

Final Fantasy

While we technically still have one week of the NFL regular season remaining, for many of us, the season ended last week. Sure, there is a game in New Jersey on Saturday night of some historical significance, but other than that, unless you are a fan of mediocre college quarterbacks (“Oh, so that is what happened to Jim Sorgi after he left Madison” Seneca Wallace? Charlie Whitehurst? This is your weekend to shine) there isn’t much to watch.

To add to the misery, most fantasy leagues wrapped up last week as well. Because I know you have been kept up late worrying about how my team ended up, I thought I would give you a final review of how my team did.

Last week, I squeaked out a consolation game victory to finish 3^rd in our blogger league.  I ended the regular season 8-5 after a late season swoon in which my team was decimated by injuries.  My biggest problem was that my team had no depth. No late round picks or free agents snuck up to surprise, so if I had any injury I had no back-up or trade bait to get a replacement.

FFootball Maniaxs pulled out the upset in the championship game with a win over thefantasyblogger, who had led the league pretty much all year.

It has always baffled me how ‘professional’ football analysts are often not held responsible for the picks they make. At 10 AM, they pick State to beat Tech easily. After a 48-3 Tech win, the analysts never come back and say “wow, I’m an idiot”. Well, I am not afraid to shout my idiocy from the rooftops. So, let’s go back and look at my week one starters, my original rationale for picking each player and how they ended up by the end of the season.

For the record, we are in a 12 person team with a snaking draft order. Therefore because I had the last pick of the first round (of course, because I needed an extra handicap), I also had the next pick, the first of the 2^nd round.  Our starters are: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-K, 1-Def.

Round  #1 – Reggie Bush (RB, NO) – The scoring of our league gives points per reception so I wanted to target a running back who would also catch passes. Bush was one of my three dream picks once I knew I would draft 12^th.

End of season update: Total points: 172. Ended up being an over-reach. A slow start to the season but then a seeming change in philosophy of play calling led to a solid middle portion of the season. Unfortunately, injury took him out of my playoffs. Though his numbers were less than impressive, in a point-per-catch league his catches help offset his lack of running yards (73 catches, 581 yards rushing). The biggest negative is the Saints penchant for throwing passes to random players (Terrence Copper? Seriously?) when they get inside the 5, limiting Bush’s TDs (6 on the season).

2 – Marvin Harrison (WR, IND) – This was a choice between another RB and the best wide receiver. Figuring the drop off from the 13^th best RB to one I could get at pick #36 (my next pick) would be less than the drop from the best receiver, I went with Marvin. Did I mention points per reception makes receivers more valuable in this league?

End of season update: Total points: 40. Let’s put into perspective at what point in the season Marvin Harrison got hurt. He got hurt while playing the Broncos. That was the last day of the Major League Baseball regular season. He played a couple times after that but was ineffective. Essentially, the day the Rockies started on their epic rise to the World Series, Marvin’s fantasy season ended. Losing your top WR (and #2 draft pick) hurts. I spent the rest of the season trying to find a consistent replacement for him.

3 – Marshawn Lynch (RB, BUF) – Possibly a stretch for a rookie but of my options at the time, I like a talented starting running back for a team with a potentially frisky offense.

End of season update: Total points: 174. My projection was pretty much dead-on. Other than a few games missed due to injury, Lynch was solid and dependable with few really poor games and some very good games. Next year he will definitely go much higher than the #36 pick I used to get him.

4 – Tom Brady (QB, NE) – Again with 23 picks between this and my next pick, I decided to take the opportunity and draft one of the only 4 quarterbacks that should be taken before the 7^th round.

End of season update: Total points: 464. I wish I could claim I foresaw Brady’s fantasy explosion this year. Sure, I knew he would be better with quality wide-outs for the first time in his career, but I didn’t expect this. Absolutely, mind-blowing season, scoring over 100 points more than any other player. We Brady owners clearly got spoiled when anything less than a 4 touchdown, 300 yard performance was underperforming. Of course, his one bad game had to occur in my playoffs, but I can’t complain. No one can ever convince me that LaDanian or Adrian Peterson should be drafted ahead of Tom. I will take him with my #1 pick next year.

5 – Vincent Jackson (WR, SD) – I assume Phillip Rivers has to pass to someone when LT and Gates are covered. As long as he remembers to not spike the ball before someone touches him again we should be ok.

End of season update: Total points: N/A. The second chink in my team’s armor, a complete missed call here. I tried to guess the weeks that Jackson was going to show up for the first few weeks but when the Chargers traded for Chris Chambers, it was apparent that Vincent was done for fantasy purposes. I cut him mid-season. Combine that with the sudden disappearance of Marvin and your team is left trying to guess which two of Arnaz Battle, David Patton and Nate Burleson are going to have good games this week. This is not a recipe for fantasy success.

6 – Santonio Holmes (WR, PIT) – Another possible reach, but I actually think Santonio could bust out this year. Roethlisberger is back closer to 100%, he has a coach not mentally already on the 14^th fairway and Hines Ward is not getting any younger.

End of season update: Total points: 154. So, I had a bust with Vincent Jackson, Holmes came through well for me. He lost a few weeks to injury but outside of that played well. He became the deep threat for the Steelers and with Hines Ward getting older, essentially set himself as the #1a receiver for the Steelers.

11 – Heath Miller (TE, PIT) – A total shock to be able to pick up one of the top young tight ends in the game this late in the draft. If LJ Smith is inconsistent or Big Ben has a great year, he could vault right into the starting spot.

End of season update: Total points: 118. I am still shocked I could pick up Miller in the 11^th round of the draft. His numbers faded a little over the course of the season but when a Tight End isn’t going to catch a lot of passes, you want them to count. He had 7 touchdowns on his 44 catches. If you aren’t one of those guys who reaches for a Gates or Gonzalez in the 4^th or 5^th round, you can’t go any better than Miller in about the 7^th…or 11^th.

 13 – Vikings (DEF, MIN) – Did you know Minnesota had one of the top running defenses in the league last year? Still not convinced? How about this: they play interception-prone Brett Favre twice, the Detroit ‘Need I say more’ Lions twice and Rex ‘Need I say more’ Grossmann twice. If they counted stats from intra-squad scrimmages against the Vikings first team (led by Tavaris Jackson) this defense could have been a first round pick.

End of season update: Total points: 176. Yes, you read that right. My second highest scoring position was my defense. There were a couple weeks where my inconsistent running game and receivers were actually saved by this defense. Minnesota scored the second most defensive fantasy points and had the most touchdowns (8). Usually when these things happen on my team it is luck. But after watching the Vikings return two picks for touchdowns against the Jets, and their coming off a season being #1 against the run, this one was actually what I was planning for in the draft.

12 – Neil Rackers (K, AZ) – Everyone needs a kicker. After getting some back-ups for my back-ups I went with Rackers who should get plenty of opportunities with the high-flying (poor goal-line running) Cardinal offense.

End of season update: Total points: 112. A middle of the pack performance highlighted by several missed long range kicks (3 of 9 from more than 50 yards). It is telling that the #1 kicker (Mason Crosby) is a free agent in my league, kickers are too hard to pick and make too little of a difference most of the time. Crosby ended with 149 points, which is less than 3 more points per week on average than Rackers.

Hitting the Trifecta - Betting with the Pros

We are back today to discuss the state of the NFL and my fantasy team (because I know how concerned you are about the latter).

• I have referenced Gregg Easterbrook here before, and though sometimes I think his views are the over-simplistic kind espoused by someone who never played the game, I will give him credit for one thing. Last week, he made the point that Cover-2 zone coverage has been shredded all season by the top receivers like T.O. and Randy Moss (Easterbrook blames the scheme, while I tend to think it might have a little more to do with the safeties being out of position). His point was that to shut these top guys down, a team should put their best corner on the receiver in man-to-man. Well, apparently Andy Reid is a TMQ fan as that is exactly what he did to shut down Randy Moss on Sunday night.
  • Problem with this being, how many teams have corners the caliber of Lito Sheppard? Not too many. The fact is Randy Moss can beat most corners one on one, which has necessitated the growth of the Cover-2.
  • This also opens up the field for the slot receiver who is too quick to be covered by a linebacker and can work outside or short to stay away from the safety. Exhibit A: Wes Welker’s 13 receptions on Sunday night.
  • The more important aspect of Sunday’s game was the ease with which the Eagles moved up and down the field with a quarterback who was banished by the Dolphins and who hasn’t scored this well since he picked up his girlfriend. It isn’t like the Eagles have a bunch of studs at receiver (quick name two), yet A.J. Feely seemed to connect at will moving down the field. If it wasn’t for the two connections with Asante Samuel, the Eagles could have very well won.
    • It seems the key is the use of Brian Westbrook. The Patriots aren’t young at linebacker, so having a quick runningback who can catch passes and get to the sidelines seems to cause them problems (see Addai, Joseph).
    • By the way, I know they ended up keeping it close but did anyone else notice that the Eagles were playing with the desperation of an overwhelmed small college team playing a top ten program in the first quarter? Going for it on 4^th and an on-side kick in the first quarter of a tie game? Wow, could the Patriots have become so dominant that even NFL coaches are willing to take a risk occasionally?
      • No, never mind that is ridiculous.
• The game of the year in NFL-1AA (aka the NFC) takes place this week when the Packers play the Cowboys (what year is this? 1995?). Everything would make you think that the Cowboys should walk all over the Packers but as I said in the Hierarchy of Hate last week. I am just not sold on Tony Romo. He has gaudy stats but he also makes mistakes and seems to lose his cool when he gets pressured (even the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets showed that on Turkey Day). While President Favre gets all the attention, the difference makers this year have been the tough Packer defense. If A.J. Hawk and Aaron Campman can put consistent pressure on Romo, he will put some balls up for grabs and the Packers could surprise yet again.
• Moving on to fantasy (because there is nothing more enjoyable than listening to some guy talk about his tragic loss / narrow victory), I realized this week that I have started to take a Billy Beane approach to fantasy football.
• For those of you haven’t read MoneyBall (shame on you!), Beane is the Bill Walsh of baseball GMs (with less post-season success) – the GM of the Oakland A’s – whose small market philosophy has helped change the game (it sure didn’t help the Rockies in the World Series). Without going into the philosophy behind his team (seriously, go read the book, I’ll wait….), Beane’s use of quantitative analysis helps achieve regular season success but hasn’t been successful in the playoffs (a small sample size for all you Statistics majors out there) as the odds are no longer with you.  Anything can happen in a 5 or seven game series.
  • I look at fantasy playoffs the same way. My goal is to make the playoffs because that validates the skill (or more likely, luck) with which I put together my team. When the playoffs come down to one week, an injury, bad match-up or just a bad day can end your season. Often things completely out of your control, decide your team’s fate.
  • So, it was with pleasure last week, that I noticed I had the * next to my team’s name indicating I had clinched a playoff berth. It couldn’t have come at a better time as almost ½ of my week-one starting line-up was impacted by injuries this week (Marvin Harrison – out, Marshawn Lynch – out, Santonio Holmes – out, Reggie Bush – reduced role). I still would have come out with a victory this week if the Dolphins could have scored (I was working and had to track the game on my computer so I am still baffled why they chose to not kick field goals twice inside the Steeler 30) or Heath Miller had his usual 4 catches for 40 yards. Oh well, the loss is much easier to swallow while still sitting in second place with one week to go.

Later this week, to commemorate Championship week, we will back with a very special episode of Hierarchy of Hate, though there won’t be any pregnancy scares or short term drug addictions to overcome. 

The Game of the Year

Well it is the game of the season. Two of the top teams in the league. Tom Brady against the Colts defense. Wes Welker on one team, Marvin Harrison on the other. A win helps to solidify the inside track for the playoffs.

What is the difference between these two great teams? I think it comes down to quarterbacking. Tom Brady’s performance up to this point has been nothing short of MVP worthy. On the other team, with Tony Romo on a bye week, Daunte Culpepper starting just isn’t the same as it was a few years ago.

What’s that? What game am I talking about? Why, the Week #8 showdown between thefantasyblogger and me in our Blogger Fantasy league of course. Like there is some other important game happening some time soon.

So, as I bask in the glory of a hard-fought win, let me dispense some of that probing in-depth analysis you have come to expect here. Honestly, I am getting a little concerned about my team. Sure, I won and sit at 6-2 on the season but I am a frighteningly one-dimensional team (much like the Packers, except when they play the Broncos). Right now my team is completely dependent on Brady. I have one running back playing consistently well (Reggie Bush, though clearly Sean Payton has a personal vendetta against me as he refuses to let Bush score when they get inside the 5-yard line) and one wide receiver I can count on (Santonio Holmes) to score more than 10 points. Basically, if Brady has an off week (or a week off – his bye week is week #10) I am done. So, much like the San Diego Chargers, I have serious doubts whether I will be able to turn regular season success into post-season success.

Basically, I am the Marty Schottenheimer of fantasy football and sadly Norv Turner isn’t in my league.

Pondering the Great Questions

More random thoughts, strewn about like the toys of a young child on the bedroom floor of the NFL.

• Obviously one of the big stories over the last week has been Donovan McNabb’s comments regarding race playing a factor in the level of criticism directed at quarterback’s around the league. There are a couple reasons I haven’t felt an overwhelming need to comment on this particular issue:
  • I set it as a mission of this forum to not discuss the topics du jour when I have nothing really to add to the general public conversation. In this case, I actually agree with much of the public responses I have seen…I know I am a little surprised too. I look around the league and see Sexy Rexy Grossman get roasted on a pig spit about 3 times a day, Chad Pennington cheered when carried off the field injured and columnists in Denver still referring to Jake Plummer as the ‘hippy-dippy quarterback’ almost a year after he last started for the Broncos simply because he wasn’t John Elway and had the audacity to speak his mind on issues beyond the merits of zone blocking (like one of his best friends being killed in Afghanistan and then held up by the government as a piece of propaganda like The Ol’ Shoe). All of these guys have two things in common with McNabb, they play quarterback in pro football crazy towns. They have one thing not in-common with McNabb – their skin color.
  • Let’s face it; I am an anonymous 32-year old, upper-middle class , white, heterosexual male – why exactly do I have any right to tell Donovan McNabb that his perception and experience of discrimination is wrong? Have I experienced discrimination? Actually yes, (because of my skin color, no less) but can I compare this to what Donovan may have experienced? No, so why should I tell him that his perception is wrong? Donovan is in a fairly unique position in between the pioneering African-American quarterbacks (Doug Williams, Warren Moon) who most definitely experienced discrimination and the new generation (Jason Campbell, Vince Young) who benefited from these pioneers and have for the most part (probably) not felt the sting of discrimination.  If he feels his skin color has played a role in the criticism directed at him, then do I really have any basis (beyond opinion) to disagree?
    • As for me and my brush with discrimination, it was long ago and fairly isolated so there is no need to go into it here. I’m not paying you $100/hour to listen to me whine.
    • Damnit, I just commented on the issue and added nothing to the argument…so much for principles, I feel like a cheap whore.
• Are Bill Belichick and the Patriots turning the sports commentary world as divided as the political world? To look at the red state/blue state stand-off of Cameragate you can check out the different views just housed on ESPN Page 2. Gregg Easterbrook (now that is a man, who is confident in his opinions) sees Watergate level conspiracy here and may already be debating whether Robert Redford or Dustin Hoffman would play him in the film to come (All the Commissioner’s Men?). Bill Simmons at the other end of the spectrum takes much more of a Shakespearean view (Much Ado About Nothing, for those in the audience who slept through English Lit in high school), though his blind allegiance to the Patriots couldn’t have anything to do with it…no, definitely not,  fair and balanced indeed.
• Why didn’t we see the Tom Brady fantasy explosion coming? He was one of the only 4 quarterbacks that should be drafted in the first four rounds based on stats throwing to 17^th rate wide receivers and this year is given Randy Moss (I still cant believe people doubted his resurrection coming into the season, how his attitude got lumped in with the likes of TO, I still don’t know), Wes Welker and, at some point, a healthy Donte Stallworth. Yes, I am one of the lucky ones currently getting 25 – 30 fantasy points from Mr. Baby-Daddy each week, not to rub it in.
• Speaking of fantasy (2 and 1 on the season and in 5^th place for the record), I have been struggling with an internal debate over the last few days so I will open up to my readers (both of you) to help decide (now that the whole chicken and egg thing has been resolved):
  • Which is a bigger annoyance to fantasy owners: 1 – Putting a player on the bench who has doesn’t much but ends up having a big day (i.e. – my own Vincent Jackson this week, bastard) or 2 – Having a player on your team make a nice long play but get knocked out at the 2 yard line so that some undeserving running back (on another fantasy team, of course) gets the touchdown and the 6 points (to all Marques Colston and Drew Brees owners, thanks for those two walk-in touchdowns for Reggie Bush on Monday night)? I will open the floor to debate. Please feel free to add a comment here and we can re-visit the consensus in a week.
  • For the record, I polled two people and got one vote for each side. I will remain Swiss on this one as I can make a solid argument each way and get really annoyed by both.

At Least I don’t play Dungeons and Dragons…yet

All week I have been feeling some pangs of guilt about something. Despite watching and reading more pre-season football related content than is healthy for anyone not named Gruden, I am starting to wonder if I am becoming less of a football fan.

I am not exactly sure when, but at some point in the last year my own fantasy teams have become nearly as important as the real teams taking the field each week.

My history with fantasy is not long, I first played a few years ago and not knowing what I was doing, I let the website make my draft picks for me. Thankfully that website drafted me some unknown second year running back in Seattle. I only knew Shaun Alexander as the running back who beat Florida twice as a senior at Alabama (so, obviously I already liked him), but I ended up riding his breakout season to a second place finish.

After a couple years not playing (I like to think the guys I played with that first year were scared to invite me back), I started playing again two years ago. Still not knowing anything but unfortunately handling my own drafting, I ended up winning one game all season. I won’t recount the moves I made, let’s just say calling my drafting the fantasy equivalent of the Texans taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young would not be inappropriate.

My healthy American football-loving male ego just couldn’t accept that, so I actually did some research coming into last year. The result was a third place finish. Sure, there was some luck involved (ok, lots of luck) - I wanted to draft Cadillac Williams as my running back and Byron Leftwich as my back-up QB (to Daunte Culpepper) but when both were taken I was stuck with Steven Jackson and Drew Brees – but I like to think that I also demonstrated at least some level of football acumen and fantasy competence.

This year I am feeling a certain level of pressure to defend my upper-echelon place in my league. With the drafts scheduled for next weekend, I have spent the last week stressing about who my first round pick should be (because I know I am not lucky enough to get one of the first two picks). I even watched the ESPN Mock draft the other night which made me feel better, as these ‘experts’ made a lot of extremely questionable decisions and helped me identify players that I should target. Fantasy even changes how I watch pre-season, as rather than watching the teams I am scouting for potential members of my team.

But this entire exercise has really driven home the fact that I am much more concerned about my own fantasy team than about the team(s) I cheer on in real life. Maybe the fact that the Broncos can’t stop anyone and I don’t see them cracking into the top two or three in the AFC is dampening my enthusiasm, but it is more than that. Sadly, I look at my fantasy teams success as a direct reflection on me (regardless of how much I lucked out in player’s falling to me) while the Broncos success or failure has little impact on me personally (especially since they stubbornly continue to ignore my suggestions). So, I end up stressing more about individual players spread across the country each week than about the one game I am always watching. My secret shame is that when I have a fantasy team player in a game against a team I root for, I will quietly root for him against my own team – hoping for a good game in a losing effort.

As if one fantasy team wasn’t enough, I have signed up for two leagues this year: my usual one and one organized by Brad at thefantasyblogger for several fantasy bloggers and me. Needless to say, I am not expecting to do well in that one. Thankfully, I talked them into also having my friend Turner join as well which will at least keep me out of last place.

Did I mention one other thing I love about fantasy is the opportunity to talk trash to your friends?